Newsletters

August 2026

The Puck Newsletter: August 2026

The Puck Newsletter Where Markets, Policy, and the Real Economy Converge August 2026 Why Korea's market rout, a jump in U.S. interest rates, and the falling price of AI all belong in the same conversation THIS MONTH'S THESIS All year we have said the risk in...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

August 7, 2026

The New Puck Website

The New Puck Website Hi friends, BIG NEWS—The Puck (brought to you by CMBG Advisors) finally has a home online! Our brand-new website is officially live at www.thepuckpodcast.com—take a look and let us know what you think! Here's what you'll find: ► YouTube...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

July 2026

The Puck Newsletter: July 2026

The Puck Newsletter The Next Frontier is Not Optional July 2026 Why America's economic discipline, industrial base, and space strategy now belong in the same conversation THIS MONTH'S THESIS We have been talking about private credit, debt, deficits, and...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

June 2026

The Puck Newsletter: June 2026

The Puck Newsletter Where Markets, Policy, and the Real Economy Converge June 2026 The Gates are Not The Story. They are the Tell. Private credit was sold as stability. What we are seeing now is delayed price discovery, stale collateral, and the first public...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

May 2026

The Puck Newsletter: May 2026

The Puck Newsletter May 2026 This month I'm doing something different. Most issues of The Puck are about what's happening in the credit markets, the venture world, or the wider machinery of restructuring. This one is about something I've been working on...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

April 2026

The Puck Newsletter: April 2026

The Puck Newsletter Where Markets, Policy, and the Real Economy Converge April 2026 The Golden Age is Over ~ Now We Find Out What Private Credit is Made Of Default rates are climbing to levels the modern private-credit era has never seen. Payment-in-kind...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

February 2026

The Puck Newsletter: February 2026

The Puck Newsletter February 2026 Structural Compression: The Slow Bleed That Keeps Us Busy Every cycle has its narrative. Some arrive as detonations — 1929, 2008, 2020 — moments when liquidity vanishes, institutions fail, and policymakers scramble to prevent...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

January 2026

The Puck Newsletter: January 2026

The Puck Newsletter January 2026 Strain to Slippage January Signals from the Shadow System Last month we described a slow unraveling: leverage at the margins, and the quiet return of discipline after a decade of abundance. The evidence was...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

December 2025

The Puck Newsletter: December 2025

The Puck Newsletter December 2025 The Slow Unraveling: Why 2026 Will Require Discipline, Not Drama The economy doesn’t break all at once. It weakens as fields do when they’ve been over-tilled: slowly, predictably, and according to laws older than any central...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

November 2025

The Puck Newsletter: November 2025

The Puck Newsletter November 2025 The Perfect Storm: Truth, Debt, Inflation, and the Coming Recession INTRODUCTION: THE TWO CRISES THAT ARE REALLY ONE America is headed into a recession not just because of layoffs, tariffs, soaring debt, and cracks in shadow...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

September 2025

The Puck Newsletter: September 2025

The Puck Newsletter September 2025 The New Manhattan Project for the 21st Century: Meeting China's Challenge with U.S. and Allied Innovation When the history of the early 21st century is written, one central story will dominate: the contest for technological...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

August 2025

The Puck Newsletter: August 2025

The Puck Newsletter August 2025 From Trauma to Empathy: Why Stepping Back Can Bring Us Closer The Distance Between Pain and Compassion In moments of war, terror, or personal attack, empathy for “the other side” is rarely our first impulse. Trauma narrows the...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

June 2025

The Puck Newsletter: June 2025

The Puck Newsletter June 2025 🚀 The puck is moving—are you ready? Debt, Financial Repression, and the Return of Hidden Inflation The U.S. economy is entering dangerous territory. Deficits are ballooning, inflation is mutating, and monetary policy is quietly...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

May 2025

The Puck Newsletter: May 2025

The Puck Newsletter May 2025 🚀 The puck is moving—are you ready? The Debt Danger Zone: Are We There Yet? In their landmark 2009 book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff warned that when a...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

April 2025

The Puck Newsletter: April 2025

The Puck Newsletter April 2025 🚀 The puck is moving—are you ready? The Hidden Inflation Risk of the Next Financial Rescue The global economy is suddenly caught in a perilous one-two punch reminiscent of the early 1930s. A dramatic stock market plunge in...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

February 2025

The Puck Newsletter: February 2025

The Puck Newsletter February 2025 🚀 The puck is moving—are you ready? Navigating Fiscal Challenges: Financial Repression and Historical Parallels The Fiscal Reality We Can No Longer Ignore The United States is facing a debt crisis of historic proportions...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

December 2024

The Puck Newsletter: December 2024

The Puck Newsletter December 2024 Navigating Economic Realities We Called It: It Was Always the Economy As predicted, Donald Trump secured the presidency, driven by widespread dissatisfaction with the economic outlook under the prior administration...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

October 2024

The Puck Newsletter: October 2024

The Puck Newsletter October 2024 A Middle Class in Crisis ~ The 2024 Election and Why It Matters As we approach the 2024 presidential election, the American middle class finds itself caught in a web of rising costs and suffering under the b

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

August 2024

The Puck Newsletter: August 2024

The Puck Newsletter August 2024 In the lead-up to the 2007 Great Recession, I remember whispers around the dinner table. While things seemed good, there was always a lingering question. Were things too good? Was the run-up in housing prices

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

May 2024

The Puck Newsletter: May 2024

The Puck Newsletter May 2024 At a recent seminar focusing on debt restructuring within the real estate sector, I delved into the intricate financial challenges plaguing the industry. While the seminar provided valuable insights and networking opportunities...

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

February 2024

The Puck Newsletter: February 2024

The Puck Newsletter February 2024 This past Sunday FED Chair Jerome Powell appeared on 60 Minutes to discuss the current state of the American economy. I’d recommend a watch if you are interested. But a few things are worth noting. First

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team

November 2023

The Puck Newsletter: November 2023

The Puck Newsletter November 2023 A Bit of a Departure Bridging Divides within the context of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: To Our Puck Community – Over the past few years, you have listened and read as we have tried our best to cover t

Author

Jim Baer

Reviewed By

CMBG Team